We continue to dig out of a large hole using a baby spoon. Going 7-6 is not going to cut it.
Have faith that we are on the right side of things. The Browns easily cover against the Bengals last week if Deshaun Watson is not terrible. And at some point, the Bills are going to look in the mirror, remember who they are and stop allowing losing teams to creep back in and cover the spread. (But maybe not this week.) Black Self Tapping Screws With Washer
We will soldier on and be more like Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold. Grow some facial hair, calm down, don’t force anything and maybe just pick a bunch of home teams as the weather gets colder.
Derrick Brown said "bearded-face" Sam Darnold is a lot more chill than clean-shaven Sam Darnold, and thinks the calmer version on the field has been solid.
Our best bets this week are the Vikings over the Colts, the Saints over the Falcons, the Jaguars over the Cowboys and the Bears to keep it close against the Eagles.
Last week: 7-6 against the spread.
Season record: 98-105-5 ATS (Plays of the week were 1-3 last week and 17-20-3 overall)
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
NFL Power Rankings: Free-agent shopping guide for all 32 teams
Let’s assume that Brock Purdy (oblique) is going to play Thursday night because the linemakers and betters are, as the 49ers have been bet up to 3.5-point favorites on the road.
Who would have thought that Trey Lance vs. Jimmy Garoppolo was the wrong QB debate all along? Purdy was 7-of-8 for 109 yards, two TDs and five first downs under pressure against the Buccaneers last week. He is 18-of-20 for 160 yards, two TDs, 11 first downs and one sack on third downs the last two weeks, and no obstacle seems too big.
Geno Smith turned the ball over twice last week and Darnold didn’t, which is why the Seahawks lost to the Panthers. Carolina also ran for 223 yards, and it’s not like the Seahawks weren’t putting more bodies up front. In the past two weeks, the Seahawks have played with light boxes (six or fewer defenders) at a much lower rate than their season average (47.9 percent), yet they’ve posted their two worst success rates vs. the run. It’s a bad time for an identity crisis.
That doesn’t bode well going against the 49ers, even if they won’t have Deebo Samuel. Seattle has lost three out of four games straight up and four in a row against the spread. We are channeling our inner Darnold and taking the safe bet.
One thing that was overshadowed in the Vikings’ loss to the Lions last week was how well Kirk Cousins played. And for all the talk about how overrated the Vikings are — they’re 10-3 and their point differential is minus-1 — they do have a huge edge at quarterback this week. With Matt Ryan at QB, the Colts have gone from 29th in offensive EPA per game (-6.7) with Frank Reich calling plays to 31st in offensive EPA per game (-6.69) with Parks Frazier calling plays. Getting Alec Pierce more touches is a good idea.
The Vikings need to get better at running the ball to cover this spread comfortably. Since Week 11, the Vikings rank 27th in EPA per rush and lead the league with 32.2 percent of their runs not advancing past the line of scrimmage during this span. But here is some good news: Left tackle Christian Darrisaw will be back after missing three games with two concussions.
The pick: Vikings -4
Speaking of offensive-line boosts, the Ravens got a big one with the return of Ronnie Stanley last week. They should be OK here no matter who plays quarterback — as even Anthony Brown showed well for himself — though early indications are that Tyler Huntley will be cleared from the concussion protocol and ready to go. The Browns are not very good at getting pressure on the quarterback.
Bigger problems for Cleveland are all the injuries and the huge drop-off from Jacoby Brissett to Watson. I brushed off his rough first game back as rust, but Watson was even worse last week. In two games, Watson is 7-of-19 for 112 yards, no TDs, two INTs, three sacks and a 17.8 passer rating when under pressure (he ranked sixth of 40 qualified QBs in EPA/DB vs. pressure from 2018 to ’20).
Maybe you can’t sit out for two years playing quarterback. Maybe the more than two dozen lawsuits alleging sexual assault and misconduct have affected him on the field. Either way, it’s not like the 5-8 Browns have anything to play for after playing hard against the Bengals last week.
Look for the Ravens to improve to 7-2 ATS without Lamar Jackson (and the inflated lines) since 2019.
The Chargers did a great job using press coverage against Tua Tagovailoa last week — and taking away the Dolphins’ money play — as they have some analytics people just like we do:
Tagovailoa when throwing in 2.5 seconds or less:
• First in EPA per dropback • Ninth in success rate (52.5 percent) • Off target 8 percent of the time, 17th-highest rate
Tagovailoa when throwing in 2.5 seconds or more:
• 13th in EPA per dropback • Eighth in success rate (45 percent) • Off target 13.5 percent of the time, 12th-highest rate
But the Bills played just two snaps of man coverage against the Dolphins in the teams’ first meeting, a 21-19 Miami win. Josh Allen somehow had 400 yards passing and 47 yards rushing and Buffalo scored only two touchdowns. Miami will have more success getting pressure on Allen this time thanks to the addition of Bradley Chubb.
The Bills, despite some encouraging developments, are now 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games being favored by more than a touchdown. What would Darnold do?
Jalen Hurts is going to win the NFL MVP Award and the Eagles are going to win 16 games. That doesn’t mean they can’t have a little bit of trouble against the lowly Bears, who we do think are well-coached and are coming off a bye. The Eagles, meanwhile, just had a convincing win over the division-rival Giants to clinch a playoff spot and travel to Dallas next Saturday to face the Cowboys. They say they’re unfulfilled …
Sometimes it doesn’t even matter when good teams overlook bad ones, but we have an ace up our sleeve: Justin Fields. He is working on getting better at checkdowns, but we are going to need him to make like the Roadrunner. The Eagles have faced 40 total QB rushes and rank last in success rate vs. QB runs (7.7 percent) and YPC allowed to QBs (6.83). Of those 40 runs, 12 were designed plays — and all of them have been successful for the Eagles’ opponent. Give me the nine points at home.
Hurts overtakes Mahomes in NFL MVP odds
The book is closed on Marcus Mariota. We will never forget his 6-0 ATS run to start the season, followed by a 1-5-1 stretch. Mariota has everything you want in a quarterback, from leadership and toughness to scrambling ability. He just can’t throw.
Desmond Ridder takes over, and usually you would favor experienced defensive coaches against a rookie QB. But Dennis Allen is 0-4 overall and 0-4 ATS against rookie QBs as a head coach (7-6 and 5-8 ATS against them as a defensive coordinator).
The Saints are coming off a late bye week and still have some playoff hopes. I am not an Allen guy, but I think they will be OK against the Falcons’ strategy of running the ball then throwing it deep (a league-leading 10.5 air yards per attempt). On throws of 15-plus air yards, New Orleans has allowed the third-lowest completion rate (34.5 percent) and fourth-lowest yards per attempt (9.31).
Andy Dalton will have all day to throw against the Falcons defense, and Allen said he is going to try to get Alvin Kamara more involved. And here I thought he was a bad coach.
This one is for all the marbles. The loser of this one likely falls out of the playoff race, as the Lions would fall to 6-8 and the Jets would be 7-7 with road games left at Seattle and Miami.
We have talked about the improving Lions defense as we had them every week until last week (for shame). From Weeks 1 to 8, Detroit ranked 26th in pressure rate (29.5 percent) and 29th in sack rate (4.5 percent). Since Week 9, Detroit ranks 10th in pressure rate (36.8 percent) and 18th in sack rate (6.3 percent). Aidan Hutchinson is tied for fifth among all defenders in splash plays (15).
Mike White took some big hits against the Bills last week but is expected to play — congrats to Zach Wilson on being promoted to No. 2 — which is good news for Garrett Wilson’s fast-charging Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign.
Meanwhile, Jared Goff has been feasting on some bad defenses and gets a much tougher test here, not to mention in the cold. I am going with that difference plus the coaching edge with the Jets, despite how much of a kick I get out of Dan Campbell.
"We're in that situation & I'm so focused on the wave that I can't hear.. I look up & we're throwing it to Penei Sewell & I go what the fuck are we doing" ~Dan Campbell
😂😂😂 #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/R4BXzus2Hn
He gets his team to bite kneecaps but is good for two to three mistakes every week.
The pick: Jets -1
We liked the Panthers defense and were on them a lot before we gave up. Well, here they are having won three of four games and back in the playoff race in the horrid NFC South. Interim coach Steve Wilks has his players’ attention, and he’s now calling for fans to prevent Steelers fans from taking over the stadium. Good luck with that.
Under Wilks, the Panthers have gone from throwing 57 percent of the time on early downs to 37 percent — which would be the lowest in the league if over the full season. Darnold is doing his best to not screw it up. He held the ball an average of 3.68 seconds before his pass attempts last week, by far the most in the NFL, and had the lowest average intended air yards (4.8) and completed air yards (1.2).
That is not a winning formula against a good Steelers pass rush. We are not sure if Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett (or wait … Mason Rudolph?) is playing for the Steelers yet, but the most sure-headed play is to go against the public betting on Darnold and the Panthers. (Steelers coach Mike Tomlin also happens to be 50-29 ATS as an underdog.)
The Cowboys survived last week and now get to face an upstart Jaguars defense that has moved top draft pick Travon Walker inside some to get even more pressure on the quarterback. Not to mention Dallas just lost underrated right tackle Terence Steele.
The Jaguars run defense, meanwhile, shut down Derrick Henry in the second half last week.
Jacksonville should be able to run the ball against a Cowboys defense that is 10th worst in rushing yards allowed. The main reason to take the Jaguars is the same as it was last week against the Titans: ride the hot quarterback. Trevor Lawrence is second in EPA/DB, first in completion rate (71.8 percent) and seventh in passing yards (1,362) since Week 9. He has thrown 10 touchdowns against zero interceptions while getting rid of the ball in 2.3 seconds on average, the fastest time in the league during this span.
Texans coach Lovie Smith had the Cowboys sweating last week. Not to mention his own front office, which is clearly playing for a high draft pick. Smith gets his talent-challenged roster to play hard, but that wasn’t enough in the Battle of Texas.
It’s hard to see Houston matching that effort here, while Kansas City should be focused after nearly blowing a 27-0 lead to the Broncos, with Patrick Mahomes throwing three interceptions. The Texans don’t get any pressure on the quarterback and can’t stop the run, so Isiah Pacheco’s fantasy owners will be happy as well. The Chiefs defense also has something to prove, apparently.
This is the seventh time since 2018 that the Chiefs are favored by 14 or more points. Only the Patriots and Bills have played more such games during that span (eight each). Kansas City is 3-3 ATS in these games, which have gone under the point total five times. So take the under 49 if you don’t want to lay or take the 14, as the Texans will be trying to run time off as much as they are trying to score.
Kyler Murray is out and there is a good chance that Russell Wilson will be also. Wilson was finally cooking against the Broncos last week until he took a nasty hit and sustained a concussion. His backup, Brett Rypien, is not good and probably won’t be able to take advantage of a reborn Jerry Jeudy.
Colt McCoy will replace Murray and is highly mediocre. With McCoy as their starting QB, the Cardinals are actually 3-2 overall and ATS, with all of their wins and covers coming on the road. (If the Murray-Kliff Kingsbury partnership is over, it will have failed to produce a single offense that finished a season ranked in the top 10 in either EPA per drive or DVOA.)
The Raiders offensive line was not very good before a couple of guys went out with injuries last week, and they’re currently looking for guys off the street to play guard. That doesn’t bode well against a Patriots team that tortured McCoy on Monday night. Among 184 qualified players (minimum 150 pass rush snaps), Josh Uche ranks first in pressure rate (20.7 percent) and Matthew Judon ranks seventh (17.2 percent). The Patriots are the only team with two players in the top 10.
On the other side of the ball, an enthusiastic Mac Jones will be going against his old mentor, Josh McDaniels, who will be going against his old mentor, Bill Belichick. Surely no time to go conservative again. Will the Raiders finally let go of the rope after last week’s embarrassing loss to Baker Mayfield and the Rams? The public thinks so, as the spread has moved three points and the Patriots are now favored, and I also will side with Uche and Judon here.
The Darnold in me thinks the Chargers are the safe bet, given they have receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back full-go on offense and the Titans have had coverage problems all season.
Meanwhile, the Titans offense is struggling. Just look at how the two teams respond to getting sacked. On drives featuring a sack, Chargers have still scored a league-leading 35.7 percent of the time. They rank third in points per drive on drives featuring a sack (1.64). The Titans have scored 5.9 percent of the time on drives featuring a sack, the lowest rate in the NFL.
But I am going against my inner Darnold. The Titans — whose losing streak has reached all the way to the top of the organization — will be able to run against the Chargers, and forgive me for being harsh (and obviously no pizza-eating sportswriter should ever say this about a pro football player), but the Chargers are a little soft. (That will change when they get Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater back.)
Last week, I went against my beloved Lions and paid a price. And now I am going to do something likely just as dumb. I have been saying, “Go against Tom Brady” all season … and have been right. He is having a worse season than his last year in New England:
• 2019: 6.6 YPA, 37.5 percent of throws at or past the sticks, first downs on 30.2 percent of attempts, 41.8 percent passing success rate, 88 passer rating, 0.00 EPA/DB. • 2022: 6.2 YPA, 38.9 percent of throws at or past the sticks, first downs on 29.5 percent of attempts, 45.7 percent success rate, 88.9 passer rating, 0.02 EPA/DB.
But … I think there is some value here. And this despite my agreeing with The Ringer’s Bill Simmons that Todd Bowles’ coaching style reminds me of Bernie from “Weekend at Bernie’s.”
The Bengals — who have their own Brady — won’t be able to pressure the old Brady as much after losing Trey Hendrickson to a broken wrist (and they’re also banged up at receiver). The Bucs will be playing for their playoff lives at home against a team that might exhale after it just followed up wins over the Titans and Chiefs by beating the Browns for the first time since 2019.
These two teams played to a 20-20 tie two weeks ago and apparently there was a national outcry, demanding the rematch be flexed to prime time (Patriots-Raiders was flexed out). Well, the Giants were lucky to get a tie in that game, got blasted by the Eagles last week and now face the Commanders, who are coming off a bye and have been eating, drinking and sleeping about this game.
The Giants have been reeling for a bit, too. Since Week 8, they rank 28th in point differential (minus-53) — in Weeks 1 through 7, they ranked eighth (plus-20). A big reason for that has been RB Saquon Barkley has been banged up and not playing well. By EPA per rush (-0.29) and total rushing EPA (-5.16), the first matchup between these two teams was Barkley’s worst game of the season.
The Commanders are trying to play young players while competing for a playoff spot, and they will be 8-5-1 after Sunday.
The pick: Commanders -4.5
I have also been yelling to fade Aaron Rodgers all season, so it’s fitting that I am on him and Brady this week. Rodgers and the Packers got a week off and gets to come back against a Rams team that was/is playing out the string and is coming off an emotional nationally televised win over the Raiders.
Plus, the Rams don’t get a lot of pressure on the quarterback. That will be more time for Rodgers to find his new No. 1 receiver, Christian Watson. Since Week 10, Watson ranks fourth in yards/route (2.93), second in yards/reception (20.87) and first in touchdowns (7) among 73 qualified WRs.
But if you want to go with Mayfield throwing to Tutu Atwell in the cold, go ahead.
— TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Aaron Reiss.
(Graphic: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photo of Sam Darnold: Jane Gershovich / Getty Images)
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Stainless Steel Lead Screw Vic Tafur is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the Las Vegas Raiders and the NFL. He previously worked for 12 years at the San Francisco Chronicle and also writes about boxing and mixed martial arts. Follow Vic on Twitter @VicTafur